AJA vs ASM
Auxerre (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 30.6% fair 3.26
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
ASM win 45.2% fair 2.21
Expected Goals
AJA
1.27
—
1.69
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 ASM | 11.1% | |
| AJA 1-2 ASM | 9.4% | |
| AJA 0-1 ASM | 8.8% | |
| AJA 0-2 ASM | 7.4% | |
| AJA 2-1 ASM | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).