AJA vs OGC
Auxerre (home) vs Nice · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
AJA win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
OGC win 28.1% fair 3.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.5% / 25.6% / 27.9%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.52
—
1.12
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 OGC | 12.2% | |
| AJA 1-0 OGC | 10.9% | |
| AJA 2-1 OGC | 9.2% | |
| AJA 2-0 OGC | 8.3% | |
| AJA 0-1 OGC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).