AJA vs PFC
Auxerre (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 33.7% fair 2.97
Draw 25.2% fair 3.96
PFC win 41.1% fair 2.44
Expected Goals
AJA
1.28
—
1.51
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 PFC | 11.9% | |
| AJA 0-1 PFC | 9.3% | |
| AJA 1-2 PFC | 9.0% | |
| AJA 1-0 PFC | 7.9% | |
| AJA 2-1 PFC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).