AJA vs PFC
Auxerre (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
AJA win 37.8% fair 2.64
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
PFC win 36.1% fair 2.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.6% / 26.1% / 37.2%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.32
—
1.33
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 PFC | 12.4% | |
| AJA 0-1 PFC | 9.4% | |
| AJA 1-0 PFC | 9.3% | |
| AJA 1-2 PFC | 8.3% | |
| AJA 2-1 PFC | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).