AJA vs PSG
Auxerre (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 18.8% fair 5.32
Draw 20.5% fair 4.87
PSG win 60.7% fair 1.65
Expected Goals
AJA
0.96
—
2.12
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.7% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 0-2 PSG | 10.4% | |
| AJA 1-2 PSG | 9.9% | |
| AJA 0-1 PSG | 9.8% | |
| AJA 1-1 PSG | 9.4% | |
| AJA 0-3 PSG | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).