AJA vs REN
Auxerre (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 31.0% fair 3.23
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
REN win 46.3% fair 2.16
Expected Goals
AJA
1.43
—
1.89
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.3% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.7% | fair 2.80 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 REN | 9.8% | |
| AJA 1-2 REN | 9.2% | |
| AJA 2-1 REN | 7.0% | |
| AJA 0-1 REN | 6.9% | |
| AJA 2-2 REN | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).