AJA vs STR
Auxerre (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 35.9% fair 2.79
Draw 24.1% fair 4.15
STR win 40.0% fair 2.50
Expected Goals
AJA
1.46
—
1.62
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.6% | fair 2.46 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 STR | 10.9% | |
| AJA 1-2 STR | 8.8% | |
| AJA 2-1 STR | 8.0% | |
| AJA 0-1 STR | 7.4% | |
| AJA 1-0 STR | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).