AJA vs TFC
Auxerre (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 34.8% fair 2.87
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
TFC win 39.8% fair 2.51
Expected Goals
AJA
1.31
—
1.47
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 TFC | 11.9% | |
| AJA 0-1 TFC | 9.1% | |
| AJA 1-2 TFC | 8.8% | |
| AJA 1-0 TFC | 8.1% | |
| AJA 2-1 TFC | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).