AJA vs TFC
Auxerre (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
AJA win 37.6% fair 2.66
Draw 26.1% fair 3.83
TFC win 36.3% fair 2.76
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.4% / 26.1% / 37.5%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.31
—
1.34
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 TFC | 12.4% | |
| AJA 0-1 TFC | 9.5% | |
| AJA 1-0 TFC | 9.3% | |
| AJA 1-2 TFC | 8.3% | |
| AJA 2-1 TFC | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).