AJA vs EST
Auxerre (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
EST win 26.2% fair 3.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.5% / 24.9% / 25.6%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.60
—
1.08
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 EST | 11.8% | |
| AJA 1-0 EST | 11.0% | |
| AJA 2-1 EST | 9.5% | |
| AJA 2-0 EST | 8.8% | |
| AJA 0-1 EST | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).