SB29 vs SCO
Brest (home) vs Angers · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SB29 win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
SCO win 27.9% fair 3.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.4% / 24.9% / 27.7%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.59
—
1.16
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 SCO | 11.8% | |
| SB29 1-0 SCO | 10.2% | |
| SB29 2-1 SCO | 9.4% | |
| SB29 2-0 SCO | 8.1% | |
| SB29 0-1 SCO | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).