SB29 vs AJA
Brest (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 48.5% fair 2.06
Draw 23.8% fair 4.19
AJA win 27.7% fair 3.61
Expected Goals
SB29
1.74
—
1.25
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 AJA | 10.9% | |
| SB29 2-1 AJA | 9.5% | |
| SB29 1-0 AJA | 8.7% | |
| SB29 2-0 AJA | 7.6% | |
| SB29 1-2 AJA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).