SB29 vs HAC
Brest (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 48.0% fair 2.08
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
HAC win 27.2% fair 3.67
Expected Goals
SB29
1.63
—
1.15
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 HAC | 11.6% | |
| SB29 1-0 HAC | 10.1% | |
| SB29 2-1 HAC | 9.5% | |
| SB29 2-0 HAC | 8.2% | |
| SB29 0-1 HAC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).