SB29 vs LMFC
Brest (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 54.1% fair 1.85
Draw 22.2% fair 4.51
LMFC win 23.7% fair 4.22
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 55.8% / 21.5% / 22.7%.
Expected Goals
SB29
2.01
—
1.22
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.4% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 2-1 LMFC | 9.8% | |
| SB29 1-1 LMFC | 9.7% | |
| SB29 2-0 LMFC | 8.0% | |
| SB29 1-0 LMFC | 8.0% | |
| SB29 3-1 LMFC | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).