SB29 vs RCL
Brest (home) vs Lens · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 28.9% fair 3.46
Draw 22.5% fair 4.44
RCL win 48.6% fair 2.06
Expected Goals
SB29
1.36
—
1.94
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.0% | fair 2.78 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 RCL | 9.7% | |
| SB29 1-2 RCL | 9.4% | |
| SB29 0-1 RCL | 7.1% | |
| SB29 0-2 RCL | 6.9% | |
| SB29 2-1 RCL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).