SB29 vs LIL
Brest (home) vs Lille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 31.7% fair 3.16
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
LIL win 43.5% fair 2.30
Expected Goals
SB29
1.24
—
1.58
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 LIL | 11.7% | |
| SB29 0-1 LIL | 9.4% | |
| SB29 1-2 LIL | 9.2% | |
| SB29 0-2 LIL | 7.4% | |
| SB29 1-0 LIL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).