SB29 vs FCL
Brest (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 40.4% fair 2.47
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
FCL win 34.5% fair 2.90
Expected Goals
SB29
1.48
—
1.38
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 FCL | 11.7% | |
| SB29 2-1 FCL | 8.7% | |
| SB29 1-0 FCL | 8.5% | |
| SB29 1-2 FCL | 8.1% | |
| SB29 0-1 FCL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).