SB29 vs OL
Brest (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SB29 win 31.5% fair 3.18
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
OL win 44.6% fair 2.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.3% / 23.6% / 47.1%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.31
—
1.72
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | fair 1.67 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 OL | 10.9% | |
| SB29 1-2 OL | 9.4% | |
| SB29 0-1 OL | 8.3% | |
| SB29 0-2 OL | 7.1% | |
| SB29 2-1 OL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).