SB29 vs OL
Brest (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 31.4% fair 3.18
Draw 24.2% fair 4.13
OL win 44.4% fair 2.25
Expected Goals
SB29
1.30
—
1.67
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 OL | 11.1% | |
| SB29 1-2 OL | 9.3% | |
| SB29 0-1 OL | 8.6% | |
| SB29 2-1 OL | 7.2% | |
| SB29 0-2 OL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).