SB29 vs OM
Brest (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 32.1% fair 3.11
Draw 22.0% fair 4.55
OM win 45.9% fair 2.18
Expected Goals
SB29
1.58
—
2.02
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.7% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.3% | fair 3.30 |
| Both teams to score | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-2 OM | 8.8% | |
| SB29 1-1 OM | 8.7% | |
| SB29 2-2 OM | 7.0% | |
| SB29 2-1 OM | 6.9% | |
| SB29 1-3 OM | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).