SB29 vs OM
Brest (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
SB29 win 29.7% fair 3.37
Draw 22.2% fair 4.50
OM win 48.1% fair 2.08
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 27.2% / 21.6% / 51.2%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.42
—
2.00
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.98 |
| Both teams to score | 65.6% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-2 OM | 9.3% | |
| SB29 1-1 OM | 9.3% | |
| SB29 2-2 OM | 6.6% | |
| SB29 2-1 OM | 6.6% | |
| SB29 0-2 OM | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).