SB29 vs ASM
Brest (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 35.0% fair 2.86
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
ASM win 41.6% fair 2.40
Expected Goals
SB29
1.52
—
1.74
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 ASM | 10.2% | |
| SB29 1-2 ASM | 8.8% | |
| SB29 2-1 ASM | 7.7% | |
| SB29 2-2 ASM | 6.7% | |
| SB29 0-1 ASM | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).