SB29 vs OGC
Brest (home) vs Nice · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
SB29 win 49.1% fair 2.03
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
OGC win 27.2% fair 3.67
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.9% / 23.2% / 26.9%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.79
—
1.26
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 OGC | 10.7% | |
| SB29 2-1 OGC | 9.6% | |
| SB29 1-0 OGC | 8.5% | |
| SB29 2-0 OGC | 7.6% | |
| SB29 1-2 OGC | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).