SB29 vs PFC
Brest (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SB29 win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
PFC win 35.7% fair 2.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.1% / 24.1% / 36.8%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.55
—
1.50
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 61.1% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 PFC | 11.0% | |
| SB29 2-1 PFC | 8.5% | |
| SB29 1-2 PFC | 8.2% | |
| SB29 1-0 PFC | 7.4% | |
| SB29 0-1 PFC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).