SB29 vs PFC
Brest (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 38.3% fair 2.61
Draw 24.2% fair 4.14
PFC win 37.5% fair 2.67
Expected Goals
SB29
1.53
—
1.55
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 PFC | 10.9% | |
| SB29 1-2 PFC | 8.5% | |
| SB29 2-1 PFC | 8.3% | |
| SB29 0-1 PFC | 7.1% | |
| SB29 1-0 PFC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).