SB29 vs PSG
Brest (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (09-13 · FT 0-1 ) · lineup adj ×1.10 / ×1.02
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SB29 win 24.7% fair 4.06
Draw 20.6% fair 4.85
PSG win 54.7% fair 1.83
Expected Goals
SB29
1.34
—
2.24
PSG
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SB29 ×1.100 (matched 11), PSG ×1.016 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.4% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.6% | fair 3.27 |
| Both teams to score | 66.0% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-2 PSG | 9.4% | |
| SB29 1-1 PSG | 8.4% | |
| SB29 1-3 PSG | 7.0% | |
| SB29 0-2 PSG | 7.0% | |
| SB29 2-2 PSG | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).