SB29 vs STR
Brest (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 40.9% fair 2.44
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
STR win 36.1% fair 2.77
Expected Goals
SB29
1.75
—
1.66
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.8% | fair 2.96 |
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | fair 1.49 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 STR | 9.6% | |
| SB29 2-1 STR | 8.4% | |
| SB29 1-2 STR | 8.0% | |
| SB29 2-2 STR | 7.0% | |
| SB29 1-0 STR | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).