SB29 vs TFC
Brest (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 76% · pregame locked (08-29 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SB29 win 39.7% fair 2.52
Draw 24.4% fair 4.11
TFC win 35.9% fair 2.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.9% / 24.1% / 37.0%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.54
—
1.50
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 TFC | 11.0% | |
| SB29 2-1 TFC | 8.5% | |
| SB29 1-2 TFC | 8.3% | |
| SB29 1-0 TFC | 7.3% | |
| SB29 0-1 TFC | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).