SB29 vs EST
Brest (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
SB29 win 50.4% fair 1.99
Draw 23.6% fair 4.23
EST win 26.0% fair 3.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 51.7% / 23.0% / 25.3%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.81
—
1.20
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 EST | 10.7% | |
| SB29 2-1 EST | 9.7% | |
| SB29 1-0 EST | 8.9% | |
| SB29 2-0 EST | 8.1% | |
| SB29 1-2 EST | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).