SB29 vs EST
Brest (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SB29 win 54.3% fair 1.84
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
EST win 22.9% fair 4.36
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 56.0% / 22.2% / 21.8%.
Expected Goals
SB29
1.91
—
1.11
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| SB29 1-1 EST | 10.3% | |
| SB29 2-1 EST | 9.9% | |
| SB29 1-0 EST | 9.3% | |
| SB29 2-0 EST | 8.9% | |
| SB29 3-1 EST | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SB29 goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).