HAC vs SCO
Le Havre (home) vs Angers · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HAC win 43.8% fair 2.29
Draw 28.3% fair 3.54
SCO win 28.0% fair 3.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.5% / 28.7% / 27.8%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.26
—
0.94
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Both teams to score | 43.7% | fair 2.29 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-0 SCO | 13.9% | |
| HAC 1-1 SCO | 13.1% | |
| HAC 0-0 SCO | 11.1% | |
| HAC 0-1 SCO | 10.4% | |
| HAC 2-0 SCO | 8.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).