HAC vs AJA
Le Havre (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HAC win 41.9% fair 2.39
Draw 28.1% fair 3.56
AJA win 30.1% fair 3.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.3% / 28.4% / 30.3%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.24
—
1.02
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.4% | fair 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 AJA | 13.2% | |
| HAC 1-0 AJA | 12.9% | |
| HAC 0-1 AJA | 10.6% | |
| HAC 0-0 AJA | 10.4% | |
| HAC 2-1 AJA | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).