HAC vs SB29
Le Havre (home) vs Brest · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HAC win 42.0% fair 2.38
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
SB29 win 31.8% fair 3.15
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.5% / 26.2% / 32.3%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.40
—
1.20
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 SB29 | 12.5% | |
| HAC 1-0 SB29 | 10.4% | |
| HAC 0-1 SB29 | 8.9% | |
| HAC 2-1 SB29 | 8.7% | |
| HAC 1-2 SB29 | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).