HAC vs LMFC
Le Havre (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 47.3% fair 2.11
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
LMFC win 27.3% fair 3.66
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.7% / 25.3% / 27.0%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.56
—
1.11
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 LMFC | 12.0% | |
| HAC 1-0 LMFC | 10.9% | |
| HAC 2-1 LMFC | 9.3% | |
| HAC 2-0 LMFC | 8.5% | |
| HAC 0-1 LMFC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).