HAC vs LMFC
Le Havre (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
HAC win 49.1% fair 2.04
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
LMFC win 25.3% fair 3.96
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.2% / 25.5% / 24.3%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.55
—
0.99
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-0 LMFC | 12.2% | |
| HAC 1-1 LMFC | 12.1% | |
| HAC 2-0 LMFC | 9.4% | |
| HAC 2-1 LMFC | 9.4% | |
| HAC 0-0 LMFC | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).