HAC vs RCL
Le Havre (home) vs Lens · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 24.9% fair 4.01
Draw 23.7% fair 4.21
RCL win 51.3% fair 1.95
Expected Goals
HAC
1.05
—
1.76
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.15 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 RCL | 11.1% | |
| HAC 0-1 RCL | 10.6% | |
| HAC 1-2 RCL | 9.8% | |
| HAC 0-2 RCL | 9.3% | |
| HAC 1-0 RCL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).