HAC vs LIL
Le Havre (home) vs Lille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 27.3% fair 3.66
Draw 26.6% fair 3.76
LIL win 46.0% fair 2.17
Expected Goals
HAC
0.96
—
1.44
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | fair 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.0% | fair 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 0-1 LIL | 13.1% | |
| HAC 1-1 LIL | 12.6% | |
| HAC 0-2 LIL | 9.4% | |
| HAC 0-0 LIL | 9.1% | |
| HAC 1-2 LIL | 9.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).