HAC vs FCL
Le Havre (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
HAC win 37.8% fair 2.65
Draw 27.0% fair 3.71
FCL win 35.3% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 36.5% / 27.2% / 36.3%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.24
—
1.24
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 FCL | 12.9% | |
| HAC 1-0 FCL | 10.4% | |
| HAC 0-1 FCL | 10.4% | |
| HAC 0-0 FCL | 8.4% | |
| HAC 2-1 FCL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).