HAC vs FCL
Le Havre (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 34.9% fair 2.87
Draw 27.5% fair 3.64
FCL win 37.7% fair 2.65
Expected Goals
HAC
1.14
—
1.25
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Both teams to score | 48.6% | fair 2.06 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 FCL | 13.0% | |
| HAC 0-1 FCL | 11.4% | |
| HAC 1-0 FCL | 10.4% | |
| HAC 0-0 FCL | 9.1% | |
| HAC 1-2 FCL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).