HAC vs OL
Le Havre (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 27.2% fair 3.68
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
OL win 47.0% fair 2.13
Expected Goals
HAC
1.00
—
1.52
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 OL | 12.2% | |
| HAC 0-1 OL | 12.2% | |
| HAC 1-2 OL | 9.3% | |
| HAC 0-2 OL | 9.3% | |
| HAC 1-0 OL | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).