HAC vs OM
Le Havre (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 27.6% fair 3.63
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
OM win 49.2% fair 2.03
Expected Goals
HAC
1.22
—
1.83
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.1% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 OM | 10.6% | |
| HAC 1-2 OM | 9.7% | |
| HAC 0-1 OM | 8.6% | |
| HAC 0-2 OM | 7.9% | |
| HAC 2-1 OM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).