HAC vs ASM
Le Havre (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 75% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 0-1 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
HAC win 35.9% fair 2.78
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
ASM win 39.2% fair 2.55
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.4% / 24.6% / 41.0%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.38
—
1.53
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.3% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 ASM | 11.5% | |
| HAC 1-2 ASM | 8.8% | |
| HAC 0-1 ASM | 8.3% | |
| HAC 2-1 ASM | 7.9% | |
| HAC 1-0 ASM | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).