HAC vs ASM
Le Havre (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
HAC win 34.7% fair 2.88
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
ASM win 40.0% fair 2.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.0% / 25.2% / 41.9%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.30
—
1.50
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 ASM | 11.9% | |
| HAC 0-1 ASM | 9.1% | |
| HAC 1-2 ASM | 8.9% | |
| HAC 1-0 ASM | 7.9% | |
| HAC 2-1 ASM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).