HAC vs OGC
Le Havre (home) vs Nice · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 42.8% fair 2.34
Draw 26.8% fair 3.73
OGC win 30.4% fair 3.28
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.4% / 26.9% / 30.6%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.36
—
1.11
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 OGC | 12.8% | |
| HAC 1-0 OGC | 11.5% | |
| HAC 0-1 OGC | 9.4% | |
| HAC 2-1 OGC | 8.7% | |
| HAC 0-0 OGC | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).