HAC vs PFC
Le Havre (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
PFC win 40.8% fair 2.45
Expected Goals
HAC
1.18
—
1.41
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 PFC | 12.5% | |
| HAC 0-1 PFC | 10.6% | |
| HAC 1-0 PFC | 8.8% | |
| HAC 1-2 PFC | 8.8% | |
| HAC 0-0 PFC | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).