HAC vs PSG
Le Havre (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 18.7% fair 5.34
Draw 21.5% fair 4.66
PSG win 59.8% fair 1.67
Expected Goals
HAC
0.88
—
1.98
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 0-1 PSG | 11.3% | |
| HAC 0-2 PSG | 11.2% | |
| HAC 1-1 PSG | 10.0% | |
| HAC 1-2 PSG | 9.9% | |
| HAC 0-3 PSG | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).