HAC vs REN
Le Havre (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
REN win 45.9% fair 2.18
Expected Goals
HAC
1.32
—
1.77
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 REN | 10.7% | |
| HAC 1-2 REN | 9.4% | |
| HAC 0-1 REN | 8.1% | |
| HAC 0-2 REN | 7.1% | |
| HAC 2-1 REN | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).