HAC vs STR
Le Havre (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
HAC win 35.4% fair 2.82
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
STR win 38.8% fair 2.58
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.9% / 25.7% / 40.4%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.28
—
1.42
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 STR | 12.2% | |
| HAC 0-1 STR | 9.5% | |
| HAC 1-2 STR | 8.7% | |
| HAC 1-0 STR | 8.6% | |
| HAC 2-1 STR | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).