HAC vs STR
Le Havre (home) vs Strasbourg · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 35.1% fair 2.85
Draw 25.0% fair 4.00
STR win 39.9% fair 2.51
Expected Goals
HAC
1.35
—
1.51
STR
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 STR | 11.7% | |
| HAC 1-2 STR | 8.8% | |
| HAC 0-1 STR | 8.6% | |
| HAC 2-1 STR | 7.9% | |
| HAC 1-0 STR | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: STR goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).