HAC vs TFC
Le Havre (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 34.1% fair 2.93
Draw 26.3% fair 3.80
TFC win 39.6% fair 2.53
Expected Goals
HAC
1.20
—
1.38
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | fair 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.2% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 TFC | 12.5% | |
| HAC 0-1 TFC | 10.4% | |
| HAC 1-0 TFC | 9.1% | |
| HAC 1-2 TFC | 8.7% | |
| HAC 2-1 TFC | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).