HAC vs EST
Le Havre (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HAC win 47.5% fair 2.11
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
EST win 26.4% fair 3.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.9% / 26.2% / 25.9%.
Expected Goals
HAC
1.48
—
1.01
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
Most Likely Scores
| HAC 1-1 EST | 12.4% | |
| HAC 1-0 EST | 12.3% | |
| HAC 2-1 EST | 9.2% | |
| HAC 2-0 EST | 9.1% | |
| HAC 0-1 EST | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HAC goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).