LMFC vs SCO
Le Mans (home) vs Angers · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 40.1% fair 2.49
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
SCO win 33.9% fair 2.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.2% / 25.9% / 34.9%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.39
—
1.29
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.01 |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 SCO | 12.3% | |
| LMFC 1-0 SCO | 9.5% | |
| LMFC 0-1 SCO | 8.9% | |
| LMFC 2-1 SCO | 8.5% | |
| LMFC 1-2 SCO | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).