LMFC vs AJA
Le Mans (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 38.9% fair 2.57
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
AJA win 35.8% fair 2.79
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.7% / 25.2% / 37.2%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.42
—
1.41
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 AJA | 11.8% | |
| LMFC 1-0 AJA | 8.4% | |
| LMFC 2-1 AJA | 8.4% | |
| LMFC 0-1 AJA | 8.4% | |
| LMFC 1-2 AJA | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).