LMFC vs SB29
Le Mans (home) vs Brest · model confidence 63% · pregame locked (08-22 · FT 2-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
LMFC win 36.5% fair 2.74
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
SB29 win 39.0% fair 2.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.1% / 24.1% / 41.9%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.42
—
1.60
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.7% | fair 2.40 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 SB29 | 11.1% | |
| LMFC 1-2 SB29 | 8.9% | |
| LMFC 2-1 SB29 | 7.9% | |
| LMFC 0-1 SB29 | 7.8% | |
| LMFC 1-0 SB29 | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).