LMFC vs SB29
Le Mans (home) vs Brest · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
LMFC win 36.7% fair 2.73
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
SB29 win 39.1% fair 2.56
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 34.4% / 23.8% / 41.8%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.46
—
1.63
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 SB29 | 10.8% | |
| LMFC 1-2 SB29 | 8.8% | |
| LMFC 2-1 SB29 | 7.9% | |
| LMFC 0-1 SB29 | 7.4% | |
| LMFC 1-0 SB29 | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).