LMFC vs HAC
Le Mans (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 38.8% fair 2.58
Draw 26.2% fair 3.82
HAC win 35.0% fair 2.86
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.6% / 26.2% / 36.2%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.33
—
1.30
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.8% | fair 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 HAC | 12.5% | |
| LMFC 1-0 HAC | 9.6% | |
| LMFC 0-1 HAC | 9.4% | |
| LMFC 2-1 HAC | 8.3% | |
| LMFC 1-2 HAC | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).