LMFC vs RCL
Le Mans (home) vs Lens · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
LMFC win 21.7% fair 4.61
Draw 20.1% fair 4.99
RCL win 58.2% fair 1.72
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 16.0% / 18.6% / 65.4%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.06
—
2.32
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.7% | fair 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.3% | fair 2.91 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-2 RCL | 9.7% | |
| LMFC 0-2 RCL | 9.1% | |
| LMFC 1-1 RCL | 8.4% | |
| LMFC 0-1 RCL | 7.9% | |
| LMFC 1-3 RCL | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).