LMFC vs LIL
Le Mans (home) vs Lille · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
LMFC win 25.1% fair 3.98
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
LIL win 52.2% fair 1.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.3% / 21.9% / 57.7%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.05
—
1.93
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 LIL | 10.3% | |
| LMFC 1-2 LIL | 9.9% | |
| LMFC 0-1 LIL | 9.8% | |
| LMFC 0-2 LIL | 9.4% | |
| LMFC 1-3 LIL | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).