LMFC vs LIL
Le Mans (home) vs Lille · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 25.0% fair 4.00
Draw 23.7% fair 4.22
LIL win 51.3% fair 1.95
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.4% / 23.3% / 55.3%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.01
—
1.78
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.2% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 LIL | 11.1% | |
| LMFC 0-1 LIL | 10.9% | |
| LMFC 1-2 LIL | 9.8% | |
| LMFC 0-2 LIL | 9.7% | |
| LMFC 1-0 LIL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).