LMFC vs FCL
Le Mans (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
LMFC win 32.9% fair 3.04
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
FCL win 42.8% fair 2.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.6% / 23.9% / 46.4%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.30
—
1.68
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.9% | fair 2.33 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 FCL | 11.1% | |
| LMFC 1-2 FCL | 9.3% | |
| LMFC 0-1 FCL | 8.6% | |
| LMFC 2-1 FCL | 7.2% | |
| LMFC 0-2 FCL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).