LMFC vs OL
Le Mans (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 24.7% fair 4.04
Draw 23.0% fair 4.36
OL win 52.3% fair 1.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.0% / 22.4% / 56.6%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.06
—
1.88
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | fair 1.81 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-1 OL | 10.5% | |
| LMFC 0-1 OL | 10.0% | |
| LMFC 1-2 OL | 9.9% | |
| LMFC 0-2 OL | 9.4% | |
| LMFC 1-3 OL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).