LMFC vs OM
Le Mans (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LMFC win 24.6% fair 4.06
Draw 20.7% fair 4.84
OM win 54.7% fair 1.83
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.9% / 19.7% / 59.4%.
Expected Goals
LMFC
1.29
—
2.27
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.9% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.1% | fair 3.21 |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| LMFC 1-2 OM | 9.5% | |
| LMFC 1-1 OM | 8.4% | |
| LMFC 0-2 OM | 7.3% | |
| LMFC 1-3 OM | 7.1% | |
| LMFC 0-1 OM | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: LMFC goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).